As the post-budget fallout continues, new polling shows one party taking a major hit and a major opponent stepping up to the plate.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has overtaken Labor in a post-budget poll as the Albanese government faces a storm of criticism over changes to the capital gains tax and negative gearing.

According to new polling carried out by DemosAU for Capital Brief between May 14 and May 20, One Nation has taken a two percentage point lead, now holding 28 per cent of the primary vote.

The Albanese government has remained relatively flat in polling numbers, with most losses recorded among independents and minor parties. Picture: NewsWire / Russell Millard
Labor’s vote sits flat on 26 per cent, the Coalition remains at 23 per cent, the Greens have 13 per cent and “others” made up of independents and minor parties are down to 10 per cent of the primary vote.

The poll also shows Anthony Albanese leads as preferred prime minister at 34 per cent, followed by Pauline Hanson at 27 per cent and Liberal leader Angus Taylor at 23 per cent.

The Prime Minister’s lead has narrowed since the April poll, with Senator Hanson rising three points and Mr Taylor up one point.

DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said current polling, if reproduced at the next federal election due in 2028, would most likely result in a hung parliament.

Mr Hasanakos said the recent budget fallout was mostly to blame, with voters viewing it as “generally bad” despite Labor’s efforts to frame it as a win for the younger generations.

“Forty-three per cent of Australians rate the budget as generally bad, against just 23 per cent who see it as generally good,” he said.

“That’s a difficult backdrop for a government hoping the budget would arrest its slide in support.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has overtaken Labor in a post-budget poll as the Albanese government faces a storm of criticism over changes to the capital gains tax and negative gearing.

According to new polling carried out by DemosAU for Capital Brief between May 14 and May 20, One Nation has taken a two percentage point lead, now holding 28 per cent of the primary vote.

The Albanese government has remained relatively flat in polling numbers, with most losses recorded among independents and minor parties. Picture: NewsWire / Russell Millard
Labor’s vote sits flat on 26 per cent, the Coalition remains at 23 per cent, the Greens have 13 per cent and “others” made up of independents and minor parties are down to 10 per cent of the primary vote.

The poll also shows Anthony Albanese leads as preferred prime minister at 34 per cent, followed by Pauline Hanson at 27 per cent and Liberal leader Angus Taylor at 23 per cent.

The Prime Minister’s lead has narrowed since the April poll, with Senator Hanson rising three points and Mr Taylor up one point.

DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said current polling, if reproduced at the next federal election due in 2028, would most likely result in a hung parliament.

Mr Hasanakos said the recent budget fallout was mostly to blame, with voters viewing it as “generally bad” despite Labor’s efforts to frame it as a win for the younger generations.

“Forty-three per cent of Australians rate the budget as generally bad, against just 23 per cent who see it as generally good,” he said.

“That’s a difficult backdrop for a government hoping the budget would arrest its slide in support.

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Jim Chalmers has defended the budget handed down on May 12 despite ongoing flak over a backflip on CGT and negative gearing. Picture: Gaye Gerard / NewsWire
“Fifty-three per cent of Australians think the budget changes will make things harder for the average Australian, and 44 per cent think they will hurt the economy.

“Those are sobering numbers for the Treasurer.”

April, with Ms Hanson rising 3 points and Mr Taylor rising 1 point.

Mr Hasanakos said voter confidence in One Nation existed primarily with their leader Pauline Hanson, noting a likelihood in preference drop if Barnaby Joyce took on the leadership.

When asked what would happen to the vote if Senator Hanson gave up the top spot to Mr Joyce, One Nation’s primary vote dropped from 28 per cent to 21 per cent.

“Pauline has a unique appeal to voters beyond those who want the strongest conservative voices,” Mr Hasanakos said.

“While One Nation’s initial surge was from conservative voters dissatisfied with the Coalition, since the summer One Nation has been attracting general protest voters.”

Voters believe Barnaby is a less favourable second choice to Pauline Hanson for One Nation leadership. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman.
“Barnaby Joyce as a leader seems to be less potent in attracting general protest voters, however his appeal still retains conservative voters in general.

“With Joyce as leader, One Nation still polls above 20 per cent suggesting the strength of the One Nation brand would persist after a Hanson exit.”

Other post-budget polling from Resolve, YouGov and Morgan have all shown a bounce for One Nation, but Labor remaining in the lead.