Elon Musk has once again pushed back his timeline for artificial general intelligence, saying his AI startup xAI could reach AGI as early as 2026, after previously predicting the breakthrough would happen by 2025.

The revised forecast, reported this week by Business Insider, adds to a long list of ambitious technology timelines announced by the billionaire that have slipped over time.

AGI is generally described as artificial intelligence that can match or exceed human cognitive abilities across a wide range of tasks, not just narrow, specific functions.

While today’s AI systems can generate text, images, and code, they still rely heavily on patterns learned from data rather than genuine understanding or reasoning.

Musk has repeatedly claimed that the jump from current AI to AGI is close, a position that keeps him at the center of global debates about the future of technology.

Last year, Musk confidently said AGI would arrive in 2025. With that deadline now weeks away, the new 2026 estimate has been met with skepticism by many researchers and industry observers, who note that similar predictions have been made for decades without materializing.

Hype, investment, and shifting narratives

Musk’s statements on AGI are closely tied to his broader business strategy. In 2023, he publicly warned that artificial intelligence could pose an existential threat to humanity and even signed an open letter calling for a temporary pause in advanced AI development.

Shortly afterward, it emerged that he was quietly building his own AI venture, which later became xAI. At the time, rivals such as OpenAI were seen as being well ahead in the race to develop powerful AI models.

According to the Business Insider report, Musk recently told xAI employees that the company is raising between $20 billion and $30 billion in funding annually, underscoring how talk of imminent AGI continues to attract massive investment.

Musk’s strained relationship with the media was also on display, with reported inquiries to xAI receiving an automated response dismissing “legacy media.”

A major challenge in assessing any AGI claim is the lack of a universally accepted definition. IBM defines AGI as AI that can match or surpass human abilities across any task, a bar that remains extremely high and difficult to measure.

Other interpretations focus on self-awareness or consciousness, ideas that remain largely theoretical and deeply contested within the scientific community.

Despite scaling back some of his more apocalyptic warnings about AI-led human extinction, Musk continues to mix futuristic promises with near-term deadlines.

Beyond AGI, he has said Tesla could eventually produce up to one million humanoid Optimus robots per year, capable of performing everyday tasks.

He has also claimed, during an appearance with Joe Rogan, that he would demonstrate a flying car by the end of this year. For now, AGI remains theoretical rather than practical.