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Lewis Hamilton is 50 points behind Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli going into the summer break, but he could be considerably closer with better execution.
Including Sprints, Hamilton has more or less maximised eight of the 14 races so far this season. In Australia, he climbed from seventh on the grid to fourth but was still the slower Ferrari driver across the weekend, so finishing behind Charles Leclerc was a fair reflection.
Expecting him to beat the two Mercedes in China (P3) wasn’t realistic. Sixth in Japan was disappointing, but pointed to his lack of pace.
Hamilton has only finished outside the top six once this year – seventh in the Miami Sprint – but again it was down to speed rather than execution. His performances in Canada (P2), Monaco (P2) and Barcelona (P1) couldn’t be faulted.
While he started on pole for the Silverstone Sprint, Antonelli ultimately proved too strong in the race.
Breaking down Lewis Hamilton’s 20 lost points in F1 title race
But what about the races he hasn’t maximised? He was quicker than Leclerc throughout the China weekend, so he shouldn’t have lost second place to his teammate in the Shanghai Sprint.
Hamilton also claims he lost half a second per lap on Sunday in Miami after first-lap contact with Franco Colapinto. Without that, it’s reasonable to expect he could have finished fourth (gaining four points).
In Austria, the failings were strategic as a three-stopper backfired, allowing McLaren driver Oscar Piastri to pip him to fourth with an inferior package (two more lost points).
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Leclerc deservedly won the British GP but Hamilton would surely have made it a Ferrari one-two without a five-second false start penalty, even before one wades into the debate over his late VSC stop. Another three points.
It’s not a stretch to say he could have finished third in Belgium either without a first-lap collision with George Russell. Combine the accident itself with the damage and the resulting penalty, and it probably exceeds the 5.7-second gap to Max Verstappen at the chequered flag. Three points gone again.
And the biggest loss of all came in Hungary. This time, the issues can be traced back to qualifying, where Hamilton’s second place became fifth after he impeded Piastri. Perhaps Lando Norris was too fast for him to win, but second was on the cards at the very least, which would have earned an extra seven points.
Tot all these up, and the total loss is 20 points. Factor in the points Antonelli would lose in this hypothetical scenario, and the championship gap almost halves (27).
It’s certainly not all his fault – Ferrari’s pit wall must take some responsibility too – but it makes for painful reading.
It might be unreasonable to expect the team and driver not to make mistakes, but Ferrari are at a mechanical disadvantage compared to Mercedes, and that means they have virtually no margin for error.
Look at Max Verstappen last season. A big part of the reason he took the title fight to the wire, despite having a manifestly slower car, is that Red Bull hardly left any points on the table, while McLaren floundered.
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Every single error from Hamilton and Ferrari has shifted the maths more and more in Antonelli’s favour. Barring a game-changing upgrade, they will be reliant on further Mercedes retirements to win the title, but, in all likelihood, they will regret failing to capitalise earlier.